Milbank, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

006
FXUS63 KABR 150427 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Marginal risk (1 of 5) for severe weather Friday
  evening/overnight, and again on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Cancelled the heat advisory a little early this evening. All sites
have fallen below the 100 degrees heat index threshold.

UPDATE Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

No major updates planned to the current forecast this evening. Any
convection appears it may hold off until later tonight. May adjust
pops through at least 3z, accordingly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Cold front is making its way across northwest into north central SD,
while mid-level wave aloft tracks eastward along the Canadian
border. Current mesoanalysis shows much of the CWA remains capped,
but this should start to erode somewhat over the next few hours with
continued surface heating and convergence along the frontal
boundary. Strongest MLCAPE of around 3000 J/KG looks to set up over
the eastern CWA by 00Z. Bulk shear around 30-40 knots as well across
central SD. Best mid-level lapse rates (~8C/KM) over the next few
hours looks to be from central SD into the northern James River
valley. Only question is areal coverage of storms, which looks to be
isolated/widely scattered at best across our CWA, with better
coverage anticipated across ND into northern MN in closer proximity
to the mid-level wave.

Temperatures this afternoon are warming through the mid/upper 90s
across central SD, expecting to top out around 100 degrees by 5 or
6pm. Heat indices are also around 100, perhaps reaching 105 over the
next few hours across portions of central/south central SD. Will
therefore leave the Heat Advisory in place through early evening.

The frontal boundary pretty much stalls, or moves very little Friday
into the weekend, maintaining a position across southern SD to along
the Nebraska state line. A couple waves of low pressure still look
to track along the front into the weekend, with on and off chances
for showers and thunderstorms. Parameters are such that one cannot
rule out a strong/severe storm threat as well.

GEPS/GEFS/ENS still agree fairly well in the overall upper level
pattern towards the latter part of the extended period, which
features ridging across the Rockies/High Plains. Rather hot
conditions likely to develop under the upper ridge, which should be
felt across central SD, where several days of temperatures in the
90s are forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday, though KATY
may experience a brief period of morning fog. Added a prob30 group
at KPIR for thunderstorms before 9z as there is an area of
convection advancing from the west and southwest.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...20